Despite rising infections recently, the global recovery has continued at pace and GDP is already back at pre-crisis levels in many countries. North America and Asia, with the exception of the Southeast Asian economies, are well ahead in the recovery cycle.
At the same time, the pandemic still poses an imminent risk in the global forecast. The delta variant has spread rapidly in parts of the world where vaccination rates are low, which has caused a number of problems. Local shutdowns of factories and ports in Asia have led to a global shortage of intermediate goods and delays in deliveries.
Global GDP is expected to grow by 6 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent in 2022 following a drop of 3.4 per cent last year. This year's second edition of Global Economic Outlook shows that GDP will be back at pre-crisis levels in many countries already this year and. In 2022, more or less all countries will have regained their 2019 GDP levels.
明升ms88备用网站's economy is now back at its pre-crisis level with Swedish industry and exports as the growth locomotive. The strong global recovery continues to benefit exports while eased restrictions contribute to increased private consumption.
It is mainly parts of 欧洲, Southeast Asia and several countries in South America that will have to wait until 2022 before production losses are recovered. Although global GDP is expected to return to its pre-crisis level by 2022, it will take a long time – if ever – before economies recover growth lost during the pandemic.
According to Business 明升ms88备用网站's preliminary calculations, the pandemic caused a permanent economic loss corresponding to approximately one percent of global GDP.
Get our full analysis in the report Global Economic Outlook.
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About the analysis
Business 明升ms88备用网站’s semi-annual global economic outlook including a review of current developments in important Swedish export markets as well as forecasts for Swedish exports and country and regional economic growth.
The outlook includes a review of recent developments in the Swedish economy, but its main focus is the macroeconomic performance of the three key regions for Swedish exports: 欧洲, Asia and North America. Major Swedish export markets like 德国, the US and 中国 are thoroughly analysed. An appendix provides the most recent hard data for 34 markets.